Publications of Bochsler, Daniel

Bottom‐up renewal of the Swiss party system

The Swiss party system and the institutional rules guiding elections are an anchor of stability in Swiss politics. This article investigates recent change in cantonal elections, and analyses how electoral swings in cantonal elections diffuse to other cantons, and whether they predict future electoral swings in the national electoral arena. Empirically, the article combines a statistical analysis of electoral results from the period 1990–2017 in cantonal and national elections with a qualitative discussion of the period from 2014 to 2017.

“The strategic effect of the plurality vote at the district level

The plurality vote (first-past-the-post) is one of the most restrictive electoral systems used for parliamentary elections. Empirically, its deterring effect on small political parties has been widely studied at the national level, while theoretical arguments highlight its strategic effect at the district level. This paper argues that the strategic effect, reducing the votes expressed for minor parties in plurality vote systems, is uneven across districts. The strongest strategic effect is expected in very competitive constituencies, where the two strongest candidates are in close competition with each other. The paper estimates the effect empirically, based on electoral results for minor political parties from six parliamentary democracies using the plurality vote. The methodology proposed in this paper allows me to separate sociological or geographical factors from strategic factors affecting party support. Results show that due to the strategic effect, minor parties lose some 15% of their votes in very competitive districts.

An Indirect Approach to Map Ethnic Identities in Post‐conflict Societies

Ethnicity remains one of the most salient layers of individuals’ social identities, and information about the distribution of ethnic identities turns out to be crucial for many studies that investigate political or social processes in divided societies. In the aftermath of civil wars, however, censuses providing such data are controversial and often delayed. Where census data is lacking, researchers can make use of the multiplier method to infer the distribution of ethnic identities based on indirect observations from sub-samples of the population. However, due to the selective nature of their data, the sub-samples might not be representative of the population. This paper proposes a method, which corrects for such selection effects. Based on the ethnic identity of birth-giving parents, we estimate the distribution of ethnic identities in the municipalities of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina for 2008-10. We correct for possible selection biases by including economic, demographic and war related variables. Multiple tests of validity show that our estimation appears to be the most accurate procedure currently available for the distribution of ethnic identities in municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The 2015 National Elections in Switzerland: Renewed Polarization and Shift to the Right

The 2015 election to the Swiss Parliament marks a return to an already observed trend that was only interrupted in 2011: a shift to the right and an increase in polarization. The vote share of the nationalist-conservative Swiss People's Party (SVP) has now reached a historical height of 29.4% (+2.8). This note discusses why cantons matter in the Swiss national elections, and to what degree elections have become nationalized. Institutionally, the 26 cantons serve as electoral districts. This leads to a highly disproportional electoral system and has magnified the minor vote shifts to a slightly more pronounced shift in seats, with the right now holding a tiny majority of 101 of 200 seats in the first chamber. The two winners, the SVP and the Liberals, also had most campaign funds at their disposal. They were able to guide an extensive nationwide campaign in which they advocated their core issues instead of candidates. Other parties only advertised at the cantonal level.

“Strategic Incentives in Unconventional Electoral Systems

The study of strategic behaviour and the impact of institutions on elections has mainly focused on simple and conventional electoral systems: list-proportional electoral systems (PR) and the plurality vote. Less conventional systems are not on the agenda of comparative studies, even though no less than 30% of countries use unconventional electoral systems for their national parliamentary elections, such as the Single Transferable Vote, PR with majority bonuses, or mixed electoral systems. Often, they provide for unusual combinations of different institutional incentives, and hence to particular actor strategies.

Which mixed‐member proportional electoral formula fits you best? Assessing the proportionality principle of positive vote transfer systems

Mixed-member proportional systems (MMP) are a family of electoral systems which combine district-based elections with a proportional seat allocation. Positive vote transfer systems belong to this family. This article explains why they might be better than their siblings, and examines under which conditions full proportionality is reached. A formal model shows that full proportionality depends on the number of compensation mandates available, and on the degree of coordination among voters and parties. The model is applied to six elections in Hungary.

Comparative Politics in Central and Eastern Europe: Mapping Publications Over the Past Twenty Years

This article offers a new empirical perspective on the state of Comparative Politics (CP) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We present findings on the authors, methods, and epistemology of CP publications in the most relevant journals from eleven countries in the region. The major finding is that CP is rather marginal in CEE Political Science. Furthermore, CP articles predominantly focus on the authors’ country of origin, use off-the-shelf data, apply mostly qualitative data analysis techniques, and rarely take a historical perspective.

Comparative Politics in Central and Eastern Europe: Mapping Publications Over the Past 20 Years

This article offers a new empirical perspective on the state of Comparative Politics (CP) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We present findings on the authors, methods, and epistemology of CP publications in the most relevant journals from eleven countries in the region. The major finding is that CP is rather marginal in CEE Political Science. Furthermore, CP articles predominantly focus on the authors’ country of origin, use off-the-shelf data, apply mostly qualitative data analysis techniques, and rarely take a historical perspective.

A quasi‐proportional electoral system 'only for honest men'? The hidden potential for manipulating mixed compensatory electoral system

Mixed compensatory systems have risen in popularity in recent years. Under such systems, single-seat districts elect only the leader of the local suffrage, but the systems nevertheless produce (nearly) proportional outcomes overall, via compensatory mandates. Elections in Albania, Italy, Lesotho, and Venezuela, however, demonstrate a particular loophole for such systems: strategic voting, organized by political parties. Large parties can achieve over-representation by encouraging their voters to split their votes. In this way, they outsmart the compensatory mechanism designed to lead to proportional results. These disproportional results are particularly controversial, since they are deliberate and strategic. This article takes the 2005 Albanian elections as its main case study, and uses simulations to illustrate its political consequences.

Non‐discriminatory rules and ethnic representation: the election of the Bosnian state presidency

The electoral system for the state presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina guarantees the representation of the three constituent people, Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, but it violates the political rights of other ethnic minorities and of citizens who do not identify themselves with any ethnic group. Following the 2009 judgment of the European Court of Human Rights, Bosnia was urged to reform its electoral law. This paper discusses alternative practices of ethnically based political representation and their possible application in the Bosnian state presidency elections. Several innovative electoral models that satisfy fair political and legal criteria for desirable electoral dynamics in divided societies can be envisaged in the Bosnian context. Specifically, these are: the introduction of a single countrywide electoral district, the adoption of the single non-transferable vote, and the application of a geometrical mean rule. They guarantee the representation of the three constituent people, while strengthening inter-ethnic voting and giving chances to non-nationalist candidates to be elected.

It is not how many votes you get, but also where you get them. Territorial determinants and institutional hurdles for the success of ethnic minority parties in post‐communist countries

Electoral rules have long been held as important for the success of new political parties, but research has neglected the dimension of territory in this equation. This article argues that the territorial structure of social groups, in interaction with the electoral system, makes a crucial difference for the ability of new parties to enter parliament. In district-based electoral systems, social groups that are highly concentrated face much lower hurdles with an own party than groups that are spread throughout the country. The argument is tested on a novel database on ethnic minority groups from post-communist countries in Europe, including 123 minorities in 19 countries. To test hypotheses with complex interaction effects and binary variables, Qualitative Comparative Analysis appears as the most suitable method. After controlling for size and special minority-relevant provisions in the electoral systems, there is strong confirmation for the hypothesised effect.

Neighbours or friends? When Swiss cantonal governments co‐operate with each other

Intergovernmental co-operation among Swiss cantons is considered to be much more intensive than in many other federal states. This article investigates different explanations for when and why subnational entities co-operate with each other, and tests them on the Swiss case. In the Swiss case, co-operation seems to be closely connected to the small-scale structure of subnational units. Swiss cantons are fairly small, often smaller than the relevant areas for the provision of public services. This means that cantons need to co-operate with their neighbours and proximate cantons. Further, in the absence of an administrative level that unifies areas with a common language, concordats are a means to co-ordinate policies among German-speaking and French-speaking cantons. The different partisan colours of the cantonal governments only marginally hinder them from co-operating with each other.